Who would have thought that a random crowd of people could be as accurate as a carefully selected representative sample at picking out winning ideas?

With a large percentage of new products failing, traditional monadic concept testing is coming under close scrutiny. Expensive, time consuming and hard pushed to identify real winners, concept testing the traditional way has shown its limits.

Predictive Markets is a truly revolutionary - yet validated - way of screening concepts. We have run a large number of experiments (215 in total across 12 categories) to prove its merits and it was awarded the Best Methodology Award by ESOMAR in 2005.

• There is no limits to how many ideas can be screened in a Predictive Market. We typically screen between 6 and 25 ideas in one test.
• This means there is no limit to how many ideas you can test: indlude the 'close-in' and 'safe' ideas but also the more groundbreaking - why not include ideas from the competition too? Now, there's room to do so.
• It really seperates the high potential from the average ideas - something classical monadic testing fails to do - resulting in easier decision making once the results are in!
• It can spot breakthrough ideas (i.e. niche market or timely opportunities).
• Results can be benchmarked and scores are much more stable across markets and categories than with traditional concept screening methods - a real plus for those working across several markets.
• It provides rich diagnostics - detailed quali-quant feedback for each concept
• Better value - especially for testing mulitple concepts in multiple countries
• It is validated as stable against norms in category and across country
• It's fast - you get a debrief two and a half weeks after the first day of fielding

• It's genesis goes back to the work of Victorian scientist Sir Francis Galton (click here to view the NOVA video featured on PBS), who was the first to uncover the fact that crowds are often wiser than supposed experts.
• We recruit 500 customers in a random way - a true crowd
• Respondents are asked to play a game in which they can buy or sell shares in ideas (each respondent sees a max. of 15 ideas). They do this based on how well they think the idea will perform in market, not based on how likely they are to buy it.
• Diagnostic questions are asked about their top and bottom ranking ideas to understand what is driving acceptance and rejection.

Click on the “see how we can help” button, call us or contact us here and see why we won ESOMAR's Best Methodology Award for Predictive Markets in 2005.